03/11/2023 – By Frédéric de Kemmeter – Railway signalling and freelance copywriter- Suscribe my blog
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The government officially scrapped the northern section of the HS2 high-speed rail network at the beginning of October, during a speech in Manchester. The HS2 project will be limited to Birmingham, in the West Midlands, and will go no further. This sheds a harsh light on Britain and the way it handles major projects.
Background
HS2 was launched in 2009, under Gordon Brown’s Labour government, with the aim of better connecting Britain’s major cities. Successive Conservative governments committed themselves to the project, which even became a flagship issue for the Conservative party under Boris Johnson, known as « levelling up ». Many said that there was a « consensus » on this policy.
A state-funded public body called HS2 Ltd is responsible for implementing the project, which includes the majors of civil and public works such as Kier Group, Balfour Beatty and Vinci. Concerning rolling stock, a joint venture between Japan’s Hitachi and France’s Alstom has been chosen to supply the high-speed trains, which are expected to roll off the production lines from 2027, although this date is far too optimistic.
The original HS2 plan was to build a Phase 1 between London Euston and Birmingham Curzon Street, a Phase 2a to Crewe and a Phase 2b from Crewe to Manchester. A second link, HS2 East, was expected to connect Birmingham to the East Midlands, allowing further journeys to cities such as Nottingham and Leeds. All that remains of this splendid project only a single little trunk…
Why were entire sections of the HS2 project scrapped?
First of all, there were contextual factors. The economic argument in favour of HS2 « would have been considerably weakened by the changes in business travel following Covid« , according to the Conservatives. While leisure travel is enjoying a boom, this is not the case for business travel, which would have an impact on the economic balance of the project.
Rampant inflation in recent years has also weighed on departmental budgets, and recent governments have all sought to cut spending. According to Bloomberg, in 2009 the HS2 project was estimated to cost £37.5 billion, according to a House of Commons Library report, or £56.9 billion today after adjusting for inflation. In 2020, the estimated cost of completing the entire HS2 network was revised upwards to £88 billion, or £119 billion in today’s money. The latest cost-benefit ratio published in 2022 by the government for the whole HS2 project was 1.1, which meant that £1 of expenditure was equivalent to £1.10 of benefit. This compares with 2.3 a decade ago.
A labyrinthine planning
The HS2 project is expected to be completed between 2029 and 2033, much later than the original estimate of 2026 for phase 1. While some of these delays can be attributed to the pandemic (which has lengthened delivery times), a lobbying group such as Britain Remade blâme surtout « over-consultation, over-design and constant planning delays for driving up costs ». The same group also compares other projects and notes that tramway lines in Great Britain cost two and a half times more to build per kilometre than in France. Simply planning a road under the Thames took ten years and cost more than building the longest road tunnel in the world. What is the justification for all this?
Over-consultation, over-design and constant planning delays for driving up costs
The Anglo-Saxon world sets the bar very high to protect civil society from abuse of power. So we have to make sure that nothing can give rise to complaints, which generates a lot of bureaucracy. For example, UK had to produce an impact report on the diversions that certain vulnerable sections of the population would have to make during the construction work in order to reach a school or health centre. Report measured the impact that the new Manchester station would have on a neighbourhood of prostitutes, as well as the temporary closure of a road that disabled children often use to visit a local farm. All this is commendable on a human level, but one wonders how the British define the general interest…
This has clearly not dampened the enthusiasm of the management of HS2, the company managing the whole project, who told the Telegraph in February 2023 that « we are more responsible builders than the French and Chinese, [because we] make sure the public is fully listened to before undertaking major infrastructure works« …
The British planning system has also been singled out for criticism. About ten years ago, explains The Economist, detailed studies revealed that the ground conditions were not as good as expected and that the tunnels therefore needed to be reinforced. There were also delays in authorising the start-up of the project. The four main contracts were awarded to the consortia responsible for their construction in 2017, but the project was subsequently reviewed and a « notice to proceed » opening the way to construction work was not given until April 2020, when supply chains were disrupted by a global pandemic. So every delay means compensation.
According to a former Labour minister quoted by The Economist and a fervent supporter of the HS2 project, « we have too few seriously trained engineers in the state machine and we don’t have a culture of systematic infrastructure investment and planning.» Tendering places heavy emphasis « on cheapness, resulting in absurdly optimistic proposals.» The British, paralysed by their culture, seem to lack the capacity to learn from the Italian example of ‘Sblocca Cantieri’ (‘Unblocking Construction’), a piece of work that aims to overhaul procurement regulations, which for Italy « is a fundamental aspect of managing and attracting investment.«
The price of things
The cost per kilometre is a major concern. South-east London, through which HS1 which runs to the Channel Tunnel, and the West Midlands, through which HS2 runs, are densely populated, but not much more so than Lombardy, where high-speed lines have been built at more reasonable costs per kilometre. Bloomberg points out, however, that according to Britain Remade, HS2 would have cost twice as much per kilometre as the last high-speed link built in Italy, even with its initial budget, and 3.7 times as much as the last high-speed link in France.
According to The Guardian, the annual rate of increase in the price of construction materials peaked at 26% in June 2022, as the HS2 project consumed massive amounts of steel and reinforced concrete for the civil works between London and Birmingham. Labour costs have also risen with wage inflation. This is a serious blow when you consider that the HS2 project currently provides a livelihood for 28,000 people, including 1,000 young people on an apprenticeship scheme that is a source of pride for elected representatives. But there are other reasons that political commentators have unearthed.
Rural culture
The unfathomable flavours of British politics have also played a part, notably through the myth of the English countryside, which has been used extensively. Groups such as the Countryside Alliance and the Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE), powerful, media-savvy and well-respected associations, are working hard to defend rural areas, their landscapes and the interests of their people. Because they defend popular values at the heart of many English people’s sense of identity, their political influence is considerable. And they can influence any project of national interest, confirming the comments made above. Further proof of the impact of civil society on Anglo-Saxon power.
To cross the countryside at 320km/h, you have to drive as straight and as flat as possible. And yet the lush green glens of the Chilterns, north of London, are part of the myth of the English countryside, with, according to some analysts, a Conservative stronghold that is particularly active in the « nimby » game (1). Former Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron reiterated on Sky News the concerns already expressed in his 2019 memoirs, in which he said that HS2 and other similar pending projects (wind turbines,…) reflected a Britain « blighted by a nimbyist aversion to doing anything radical or big or expensive. »
« Britain continues to be blighted by a nimbyist aversion to doing anything radical or big or expensive » – David Cameron
Fearing to alienate voters in these wealthy areas of north London, pressure was put on, says Bloomberg, to bury HS2 as far as possible through the Chilterns hills. Opposition to the project would have meant that phase 1 includes 51.5 km of tunnels, compared with the 30 km originally proposed. According to The Times, the number of tunnels is so great that passengers would only see daylight for 7 minutes of the 45-minute journey from London to Birmingham. This is probably an exaggeration, but HS2, the company managing the project, confirms that 81% of the route will be « below ground level »: either in tunnels or in trenches. Five tunnels will be built in the open air! For a breathtaking view of rural England, prefer the motorway…
Global reputation
There are few willing notes in favour of abandoning the Birmingham-Manchester section. Tony May, Emeritus Professor of Transport Engineering at Leeds University, bravely explained to the Guardian that « it is highly questionable whether a complete HS2 would have strengthened the economy of the north. Forty years of the TGV have not made France less Paris-centric, » he explains. In so doing, he echoes the idea put forward in a report commissioned in 2012 by the Champagne-Ardenne Regional Council (France) from the University of Reims on the benefits of the TGV for the French towns and cities it serves, which came to much the same conclusion.
Others, in Great Britain, are talking about a strategic error and that a solution would have been to start with the HS2 north Birmingham-Manchester section. But as always, it seems incongruous that the province should receive infrastructure that a capital city would not…
In business circles, the whole thing is tarnishing the country’s reputation more generally. An internet user on LinkedIn explained that « the problem is that politicians are so focused on five-year election cycles that it’s hard to think about the longer term. That’s why we need an Infrastructure Commission with more teeth, as was originally proposed!«
More than 400 homes bought on the Crewe to Manchester route alone. All for nothing…
It is also a financial and social disaster. According to The Guardian, nearly £3.4 billion has been spent on buying land and property for the original HS2 route – including £584 million for the planned sections north of Birmingham, with more than 400 homes bought on the Crewe to Manchester route alone. All for nothing…
A rail consultant who worked on the project, told the BBC that « if you don’t do part of the project, you lose the benefits that go with that part of the project, and you leave the expensive Phase One that’s now under construction under-used. »
These new realities obviously apply to all other projects decided by the government, and explain the debate about the price of things and the ability to run infrastructure projects in Britain.
In the Investor Chronicle, a consultant whose project management company Mace is working on two major station contracts, said that the decision not to proceed with Phase 2 « will seriously undermine business and investor confidence in the UK and our ability to deliver – as well as having a chilling effect on the UK construction industry. »
Business LDN, which represents London employers, and the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, which represents northern businesses, say that « Britain’s reputation as an attractive place to invest could be left in tatters. » The chairman of the National Infrastructure Commission acknowledged the need to control costs, but said on BBC Radio 4: «What do we say to all the investors we want to bring to the UK? Here’s a country that sets itself ambitions, then runs away when it starts to see difficulties. » « As a G7 country member, we should be able to get difficult things right, », hammered the Conservative mayor of West Midlands.
What will be done with the £36 billion saved?
Just as Boris Johnson did in 2021, when he scrapped the branch to Leeds and promised wonders for the conventionnal network – still invisible at this day – this October we rushed to list the lucky beneficiaries of the billions of pounds saved. Here are just a few, without any certainty of realization:
- Investment of £12 billion to link Manchester and Liverpool;
- Construction of a rail hub in the Midlands « linking 50 different stations »;
- Extension of the West Midlands Underground and construction of a tramway in Leeds;
- Electrification of the North Wales main line;
- Restoration of the Don Valley railway line between Sheffield and Deepcar.
Like the previous one, this shopping list can be summed up in a single word: really ? Speaking to the BBC, Prime Minister repeatedly dodged or refused to answer questions about the list.
As the 2025 elections are approaching, the HS2 money should primarly address the primary concern of an electorate « greatly affected by galloping pothole inflation. » The government has pledged to invest £5 billion in road and freeway maintenance between 2020 and 2025, a budget recently increased by the Treasury.
In the end…
Can we turn the tide in a country that will be celebrating 200 years of railroads in 2025? It’s doubtful, but English-style surprises are always possible.
The Labour opposition doesn’t seem to agree with this amputation of the HS2 project, the Midlands, from Manchester to Leeds, being one of their electoral strongholds. But their message generally lacks clarity.
Nevertheless, this umpteenth amputation of the HS2 project is a negative signal. It formulates the thesis that the railroad is decidedly expensive. It gives wings to rail’s enemies, to the village-minded degrowth, and encourages the Nostradamus cohort to advance other ideas of carbon-free transport far removed from rail. Even if, of course, this is not about making rail an ideology, this minimalist HS2 undermines the idea of a rail sector capable of taking the lead in decarbonizing our transport.
More generally, our British friends fear that it will still be impossible to carry out major mobilizing projects in a country that badly needs them, while Brexit seems definitely not keeping its promises… 🟧
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03/11/2023 – By Frédéric de Kemmeter – Railway signalling – Suscribe my blog
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